In a truly amazing two-year shift of political sentiments throughout the nation, the Democratic party is about to plummet from the heights of its 2008 conquest–with pollsters agreeing that voters will punish the party with all of the reigns of national power in mid-term elections tomorrow.
The surprise is not the dramatic shift, for part of the strength of the American system is a continuous purging of office holders who are not delivering on their promises. The shock is the rapid and far-reaching drop of a historically popular and sociologically historic President and a party that surged into power just two years ago.
While parties and campaign communicators will fashion election results as a massive shift of allegiances, the reality is that relatively few Americans are ideologues of the right or left. The error of the national Democrats has been their effort to impose an ideologically extreme move to the left, with a series of actions to increase the size and reach of the federal government. They campaigned as centrists and governed as progressives. They overplayed their hand and lost the independents.
What seems likely is that the Republicans will capture control of the House, with nearly all of the pollsters indicating that it would take a near miracle for the Democrats to retain the majority there. It also seems likely that the Democrats will still be in the majority in the Senate, but with only a slim majority—and probably without its majority leader in office—Harry Reid is down about 4 points.
However, it is also reasonable to predict that the enthusiasm gap is so much greater among GOP voters and that pollsters may have underestimated Republican turnout (they do have to guess on this sort of thing, you know) so dramatically that the election will be a tsnaumi, with the donkeys in total retreat—in the House, the Senate, and Governors’ mansions.